Misconceptions About Bitcoin
1) “Bitcoin is a Bubble”
Many people view Bitcoin as a bubble, which is understandable. Especially for folks who were looking at the linear chart in 2018 or 2019, Bitcoin looked like it hit a silly peak in late 2017 after a parabolic rise that would never be touched again.
Maybe it is a bubble. We’ll see. However, it looks a lot more rational when you look at the long-term logarithmic chart, especially as it relates to Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle.
Each dot in that chart represents the monthly bitcoin price, with the color based on how many months it has been since the prior halving. A halving refers to a pre-programmed point on the blockchain (every 210,000 blocks) when the supply rate of new bitcoins generated every 10 minutes gets cut in half, and they occurred at the times where the blue dots turn into red dots.
The first cycle (the launch cycle) had a massive gain in percent terms from zero to over $20 per bitcoin at its peak. The second cycle, from the peak price in cycle 1 to the peak price in cycle 2, had an increase of over 50x, where Bitcoin first reached over $1,000. The third cycle from peak-to-peak had an increase of about 20x, where Bitcoin briefly touched about $20,000.
Since May 2020, we’ve been in the fourth cycle, and we’ll see what happens over the next year. This is historically a very bullish phase for Bitcoin, as demand remains strong but new supply is very limited, with a big chunk of the existing supply held in strong hands.
The monthly chart is looking solid, with positive MACD, and a higher current price than any monthly close in history. Only on an intra-month basis, within December 2017, has it been higher than it is now.
The weekly chart shows how many times it became near-term overbought, and how many corrections it had, on its previous post-halving bullish run where it went up by 20x.
My job here is simply to find assets that are likely to do well over a lengthy period of time. For many of the questions/misconceptions discussed in this article, there are digital asset specialists that can answer them with more detail than I can. A downside of specialists, however, is that many of them (not all) tend to be perma-bulls on their chosen asset class.
This is true with many specialist gold investors, specialist stock investors, specialist Bitcoin investors, and so forth. How many gold newsletters suggested that you might want to take profits in gold around its multi-year peak in 2011? How many Bitcoin personalities suggested that Bitcoin was probably overbought in late 2017 and due for a multi-year correction?
I’ve had the pleasure of having conversations with some of the most knowledgeable Bitcoin specialists in the world; the ones that keep their outlooks measured and fact-based, with risks clearly indicated, rather than being constant promoters of their industry at any cost. Bitcoin’s power comes in part from how enthusiastic its supporters are, but there is room for independent analysis on bullish potential and risk analysis as well.
And as someone who isn’t in the digital asset industry myself, but who has a background that blends engineering and finance that lends itself reasonably well to analyzing it, I approach Bitcoin like I approach any other asset class; with an acknowledgement of risks, rewards, bullish cycles, and bearish cycles. I continue to be bullish here.
If this fourth cycle plays out anywhere remotely close to the past three cycles since inception (which isn’t guaranteed), Bitcoin’s relative strength index could become quite extreme again in 2021.
For that reason, Bitcoin going from $6,900 to $15,000+ in seven months doesn’t lead me to take profits yet. In other words, a monthly RSI of 70 doesn’t cut it as “overbought” in Bitcoin terms, particularly this early after a halving event. I’ll likely look into some rebalancing later in 2021, though.
Each investor has their own risk tolerance, conviction, knowledge, and financial goals. A key way to manage Bitcoin’s volatility is to manage your position size, rather than try to trade it too frequently. If Bitcoin’s price volatility keeps you up at night, your position is probably too big. If you have an appropriately-sized position, it’s the type of asset to let run for a while, rather than to take profits as soon as it’s slightly popular and doing well.
When it’s at *extreme* sentiment, and/or its position has grown to a disproportionately large portion of your portfolio, it’s likely time to consider rebalancing.
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bitcoin iq ethereum classic Lastly, randomness. While most people recognize that there is intelligent design in bitcoin’s foundation, what is often missed is the randomness through which it evolved and that what it became (money) was largely a function of that randomness. Lightning was caught in a bottle; it was a result of thousands of people making thousands of independent decisions very early on. But the process also continues to this day. From cryptographers and developers contributing time and energy, to companies and investors building infrastructure, and to users just wanting to find a better way to store value. If the reset button was hit going all the way back to 2008 when the bitcoin white paper was released, and the same initial code was released, placing the same people in the same rooms, bitcoin would very likely not be what it is today. It may be 'better' or 'worse,' but ultimately it was and continues to be a product of randomness. It is not the product of consciously directed thought, and it expands beyond the resources of individual minds because of that fact. For those that perceive flaws in bitcoin and have (or had) ideas of how to make a better bitcoin, the intelligence of bitcoin’s design is often observed and acknowledged. Design can be copied and individual features can be changed out, but randomness cannot be replicated.Discussing example applications that benefit from a blockchain will help clarify the different uses of the term. First, consider a database backend for transactions among a consortium of banks, where transactions are netted at the end of each day and accounts are settled by the central bank. Such a system has a small number of well-identified parties, so Nakamoto consensus would be overkill. An on-blockchain currency is not needed either, as the accounts are denominated in traditional currency. Linked time-stamping, on the other hand, would clearly be useful, at least to ensure a consistent global ordering of transactions in the face of network latency. State replication would also be useful: a bank would know that its local copy of the data is identical to what the central bank will use to settle its account. This frees banks from the expensive reconciliation process they must currently perform.сборщик bitcoin It's also unclear at times how cohesive a virtual coin and its underlying blockchain are. The example above involving Ripple's blockchain and its XRP shows how the two work pretty well hand-in-hand. Not all cryptocurrencies have a coin that has a clear-cut use or enhances the value of its underlying blockchain. This is why valuing cryptocurrencies often proves difficult.wmx bitcoin bitcoin луна total cryptocurrency bitcoin free minecraft bitcoin block bitcoin love bitcoin ethereum клиент bitcoin проект bitcoin traffic bitcoin зебра mt5 bitcoin amazon bitcoin bitcoin pools калькулятор bitcoin bitcoin знак бесплатный bitcoin zcash bitcoin What are orphan blocks?Separately, anyone within or outside the network could copy bitcoin’s software to create a new version of bitcoin, but any units created by such a copy would be considered invalid by the nodes operating within the bitcoin network. Any subsequent copies or units would not be considered valid, nor would anyone accept the currency as bitcoin. Each bitcoin node independently validates whether a bitcoin is a bitcoin, and any copy of bitcoin would be invalid, as it would not have originated from a previously valid bitcoin block. It would be like trying to pass off monopoly money as dollars. You can wish it to be money all you want, but no one would accept it as bitcoin, nor would it share the emergent properties of the bitcoin network. Running a bitcoin full node allows anyone to instantly assay whether a bitcoin is valid, and any copy of bitcoin would be immediately identified as counterfeit. The consensus of nodes determines the valid state of the network within a closed-loop system; anything that occurs beyond its walls is as if it never happened.bitcoin maining карты bitcoin bitcoin script ebay bitcoin
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